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Australian mining investment surges despite economy, tax concerns

Central Queensland Site Services; Oct. 26, 2011

 

Investment in Australian mining could surpass A$80-billion by 2015, despite concerns over the global economy and the introduction of new taxes on carbon, iron-ore and coal mining profits, an independent economic forecaster and analyst said on Monday.
 
In its ‘Mining in Australia 2011 to 2026’ report, BIS Shrapnel states that multibillion-dollar projects across the oil and gas, iron-ore and copper sectors would boost mining investment, which is forecast to rise 66% to A$83-billion by 2015/16.
 
Fixed capital investment in mining, which covers construction and plant and equipment, was also expected to grow by around 75% to nearly A$60-billion by 2015/16.
 
As a share of total private investment mining investment would increase from 7% to 20% to 2015.
 
BIS Shrapnel’s infrastructure and mining unit senior manager, Adrian Hart said that it appeared that mining companies were not “overly perturbed” by current global economic conditions, or the prospect of new Australian taxes on resource profits or carbon.
 
The government is proposing a 30% levy on coal and iron-ore profits from July next year, The A$23/t carbon tax was recently passed through the lower house of Parliament, and was expected to be enacted before the end of this year.
 
“While the global economy remains very patchy, the long-term outlook for key commodities is still very strong. Demand for metals and minerals continues to be driven by the long-term industrial development of China and India, which is also delivering growth in other Asian economies. This is underlined by the number of very large mining and energy projects in Australia, which have recently started or been approved across liquefied natural gas, coal, iron-ore, copper and gold,” said Hart.
 
Coal and iron-ore investments also bounced back strongly in 2010/11, and would grow a further 60% and 40% respectively over the next five years.
 
Assisted by a bounce-back from the Queensland floods, mining production is forecast to rise 5.2% in 2011/12, then 8.9% in 2012/13. Black coal production is expected to rise 30% during these two years, and surpass 600-million tons a year by mid-decade. From 2012/13, surging oil and gas, and iron-ore production from multibillion-dollar greenfield and expansion projects would sustain record rates of growth.
 
Over the five years to 2015/16, mining production was forecast to rise 45% in real terms — the strongest rate of growth since the 1980s. Mining maintenance activity will also rise substantially from A$6.5-billion to A$8-billion a year, due to the rapid expansion in capital stock and the ability of miners to pay for maintenance work.
 
Overall, the strong performance of the mining sector would help to underpin a robust acceleration in the Australian economy, with the growth in gross domestic product forecast to rise to 3.1% in the year to June 2012 and 3.8% in the year to June 2013.
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